Harvia FY 2023: Back to Growth in Q4 After a Year of Destocking

Harvia Plc reported full-year 2023 revenue of EUR 150.5 million on 8 February 2024, down 12.7% from EUR 172.4 million in 2022. But the headline obscured the turn: Q4 2023 revenue grew 3.4% year-over-year to EUR 39.4 million, the first quarterly growth since Q1 2022, with an adjusted operating margin of 24.2%, the company's strongest Q4 profitability since its IPO. Harvia shares jumped on the print. (Prior year: FY 2022 reset. Next quarter: Q1 2024. Full coverage: Harvia News hub.)

The Inflection Nobody Was Modeling

Heading into Q4, Inderes and the broader sell-side had been modeling another quarter of modest decline, with the expectation that organic growth would return in H1 2024. Harvia instead delivered positive organic growth of 5.2% in Q4 and a margin substantially above consensus. The read-through was clear: European destocking had completed faster than expected, and North American growth had accelerated enough to offset whatever Continental European weakness remained.

In Q4 2023, Harvia returned to growth. North America continued to grow at a fast pace and is now our largest market area. Asia-Pacific sales developed very favorably, and Central Europe is showing signs of stabilization.

That North America callout was a first. For most of Harvia's history as a public company, Northern Europe had been its anchor market. The 2022-2023 destocking cycle had inverted the mix: US consumer demand had held up through higher rates, Almost Heaven had kept growing through specialty and mass channels, and currency had helped. The US now represented the largest single region in Harvia's revenue base.

Margin Walk

Q4 adjusted operating margin of 24.2% was well above the 20%-plus long-term target and materially above the 19.7% full-year 2022 result. Three drivers: (1) Price increases taken through 2022 and early 2023 had largely stuck; (2) Inflationary cost pressure on steel, copper, and freight had rolled over, with management noting easing on key raw materials; (3) Operational leverage returned as volumes recovered.

FY 2023 key figures: FY revenue EUR 150.5M (-12.7% YoY; organic -9.4%). FY operating profit EUR 33.0M (21.9% margin). FY adjusted operating profit EUR 33.7M (22.4% margin). Q4 revenue EUR 39.4M (+3.4% YoY; organic +5.2%). Q4 adjusted operating profit EUR 9.5M (24.2% margin). Operating free cash flow EUR 44.6M (138.9% cash conversion). Net debt EUR 37.6M. Leverage: 0.9x. EPS EUR 1.25. Proposed dividend: EUR 0.68 per share (two installments).

Cash Flow Story

The cash flow line was where the destocking cycle actually paid off. Harvia generated EUR 44.6 million in operating free cash flow for the year against EUR 33 million in operating profit, a cash conversion of 138.9%. That reflected aggressive working capital management: inventory came down sharply through the year, receivables normalized, and management chose to prioritize cash over margin optics in certain channels. Net debt finished at EUR 37.6 million, leverage at 0.9x, both comfortably below long-term targets.

Dividend Increase

Harvia's board proposed a total dividend of EUR 0.68 per share for 2023, up from EUR 0.65 for 2022. The increase signaled management confidence in the growth return and the cash flow profile. Payment was split into two installments in April and October 2024, maintaining the bi-annual cadence Harvia has used since the IPO.

Analyst Reaction

The Inderes analyst summary described Q4 as "much better than expected" and raised the margin outlook for 2024. Danske Bank Markets maintained its constructive stance. The stock rose on the day and continued to trade higher into the spring as the Q1 2024 print approached.

Management set qualitative expectations for 2024: continued North American growth, gradual Central European recovery, APAC acceleration. No specific numeric guidance. The Q1 2024 interim report was scheduled for 3 May 2024. M&A was an open question; management said they would evaluate opportunities as they arose, with North American steam being flagged as a category of interest. That commentary would prove load-bearing when ThermaSol was announced in July 2024.

FY 2023 was the most important print Harvia had delivered since its IPO. The destocking cycle was over, margins were back near peak, cash flow was exceptional, and the regional mix had tilted toward the US in a way that would compound through the ThermaSol deal to come. Any analyst who had de-rated Harvia on the 2022 results was now scrambling to re-underwrite the story.